Start with the confirmed lineup
A squad announcement does not prove that a player is in the playing XI. Check the final selection and the expected batting role before interpreting a player market.
Compare opportunity
Opening position, innings length, chasing target and recent role can change the number of balls available. A short sample of high scores is not a reliable probability estimate.
Read ties and participation terms
Check dead-heat treatment, minimum participation and whether a player who does not bat is handled differently. These are operator-specific terms, not universal promises.
Avoid selective statistics
Use comparable formats and conditions. A Test average and a T20 scoring role answer different questions; do not combine them into a confident-looking tip.